State of play in Nicaragua

I attended a fascinating discussion on the state of Nicaraguan politics this morning at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, DC, featuring Carlos Fernando Chamorro, renowned Nicaraguan journalist, and the protagonist of "Esta Semana" and "Confidencial." His analysis was a refreshing break from the routine Ortega-bashing, yet nonetheless painted a stark overall picture regarding the decline of democratic politics in the country following the November 2008 municipal and legislative elections.

Among new items I learned were:

> Iran and Russia really play much less of a role than some have argued; donations and relations are minimal are laregly exploited by the Ortega administration for political posturing.
> Venezuelan aid, reported to be as high as $300 million in 2008, is projected by government sources to be less than half of that in 2009 -- and may not equal the total MCC fund losses of $62 million which Venezuela has vowed to cover if withdrawn by the US (a final decision is pending a meeting later this month).
> The opposition to the FSLN, as fragmented as it was in 2006, shows signs of continued fracture, rather than consolidation. The private sector, civil society and NGOs are split into many different factions, very few of which have any interest in direct antagonism with the Ortega administration.

I'll update this post with a link to a full audio of the discussion soon.

Meanwhile, for an interesting read, check out this recent NY Times story on Chamorro, one of the most important independent voices in Nicaragua.