Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Region grapples with Ecuador's default decision

President Rafael Correa's surprise decision last week to default on Ecuador's foreign debt for the second time in a decade is still being puzzled at by economists and analysts.

I have found it difficult (as a non-economist) to hash through the finance-speak and to understand the economic implications, but have been impressed with a few stories that have been able to relate sharp analyses of the issues at stake in a digestible way; if you're at all like me, you'll appreciate these:

The
Latin Business Chronicle gives an overview of the decision's likely affects on the region's economy (summary: not good, thanks in part to the "Financial Times effect.") Seeking Alpha blog offers an objective summary of the ideology behind the decision. Bloggings by Boz offers meaty analysis with embedded updates in the post, including a compelling potential scenarios breakdown.

In sum, many have (rightly)
cast the default as a politically motivated, ideological decision. There are already clear winners (the Ecuadoran government) and losers (investors) to see, but it seems like we will only understand the foresight - or lack thereof - of this decision after a number of other scenarios play out.

Sources: Latin Business Chronicle, AlphaNet, Investors Daily, Bloggings by Boz

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