Herty Lewites, (image) a moderate leftist candidate for election, Nicaragua
Thursday, July 6, 2006
Nicaragua: Candidate’s surprise death helps ex-prez Ortega
Herty Lewites, (image) a moderate leftist candidate for election, Nicaragua
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8 comments:
I'm not so sure. Ortega has been pretty well marginalized as a result of his having turned the FSLN essentially into a personalist vehicle. I would not necessarily expect those who were supporting Lewites to come back.
If Ortega can depersonalize (is that a word?) the FSLN and make concessions to moderates then he may gain a sizeable chunk of Lewitwes' supporters. If that does happen, then his lead in the polls could be enough to avoid a runoff vote.
Latest poll via Angus Reid:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12494
Sorry, here's the link:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/
viewItem/itemID/12494
Dammit, let's see if this works:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/
fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12494
If Ortega can depersonalize... the FSLN and make concessions to moderates then he may gain a sizeable chunk of Lewitwes' supporters.
True. I just don't think he will. I guess I think it's too late for him to do that. But it is not as though I have kept up with the internal politics of the FSLN, so I don't claim intimate knowledge. Just a very strong hunch.
I wholly agree with your hunch inasmuch as there's plenty of time for Ortega to bend backwards and get support from the center-left. (Election day is November 5th). It would be very interesting to see what he does if he wins in the first round but cannot avoid a runoff.
Is there still a runoff? I raised this in connection with a thread over at boz. I looked at what I believe to be the most recent version of the revised constitution, and it says "mayoría relativa."
Could the runoff provision have been abolished in one of the several recent reforms to the constitution?
Nicaragua does have a runoff in case no candidate surpasses 40% and it may not come about as Ortega has approximately 35-38% support according to recnt polls.
I suppose theoretically any part of the runoff provision can be modified or stripped altogether. However, I have no idea as to the possiblity of it coming about.
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