War Games!

Fidel Castro dies, Raul is assassinated in coup, and thousands of would-be refugees make their way for Guantanamo. No, it's not a late April Fools joke, but rather a post-Castro simulation carried out by the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American studies.

The Miami Herald laid out some of the potential actions and reactions that the simulation produced, and all seemed to underscore the point that when things change in Cuba, they may change extremely fast and have huge a impact on whichever US administration has to deal with them.

Though the stakes might not be as high as a recent war game simulation carried out by the Brookings Institution in the case of an Israeli strike against Iran nuclear facilities, the Cuba case shed some interesting light on how a rapid change in Cuba would ripple across the Florida straight.

Online Sources: Miami Herald, New York Times

Image Source: US News

New poll shows discontent with US policy towards Latin America

A new poll released today by Zogby and the Inter-American Dialogue suggests that the US government policies towards Latin America are at sharp odds with public opinion.

“The poll results indicate that American public opinion is far more open and flexible on issues of importance for US relations with Latin America than current policy would suggest,” noted Peter Hakim, the president of the Inter-American Dialogue.

The poll, which was conducted of "likely voters" (and disaggregated by likely presidential vote preference, among other factors) suggests that a majority of voters disagrees with US current policies on immigration, those towards Cuba, and the war on drugs throughout the region.

Not surprisingly, the survey indicates that 85% of those likely to vote for Obama support improving diplomatic relations with Venezuela (as opposed to 15% of the likely McCain voters polled). Likewise, the survey suggests that Obama supporters are almost 3 times more likely to back changes to US Cuba policy than McCain supporters, who prefer the status quo. (I can't help but wonder what would have been the breakdown of answers to the question "What year is it: 2008 or 1984?").

For more information, see the PDF of the survey data and a related article in today's Miami Herald.