A growing number of businesses are preparing to invest in Cuba in the hope that Raul Castro will be a more pragmatic leader than his ailing brother Fidel. One leading Miami-based investor told Voice of America that: "For those of us who've been listening to Raul since he took over power last August, he's taken a much more conciliatory posture towards the U.S. Now how far will he go towards free elections, releasing the political prisoners, compensation for confiscated property, return to capitalism, how far will he go and how soon will he do it? That would be the key, in my view, towards the U.S. resuming trade with Cuba and we'll just have to see."
Not everyone believes that Cuba will radically change once Fidel dies, a scenario postulated by Orlando Sentinel columnist George Diaz. Even the state of Fidel’s health is unknown as conflicting accounts vary though the latest news is that he is in “stupendous” condition.
Links- Voice of America, The Latin Americanist, Orlando Sentinel, International Herald Tribune
Image- Diario Granma (September 2006 photo of a convalescing Fidel Castro)
9 comments:
once again, nicely pulled together erwin
well, I hate to be a wet blanket here, but I don't see the NeoCons losing Havana on their watch to the Communist Party, regardless of what the discredited Cuba-American lobby wants.
(And make no mistake: The Cuban government is completely controlled now by the Communist Party.)
And neither is there enough political will in the US to business with them. Americans may want normalization with Havana, but they're not happy with how normalizing relations with China is impacting the American economy.
So I doubt there will be any movement on America's part until 2008.
Thank you kindly, Redwood.
I agreewith you in that there's currently insufficient political will to support a post-Fidel expansion into Cuba. The only way I figure that there could be widespread support for it would be to link democratization in Cuba with the issue of U.S. domestic security. Would the average American fall for such a strategy? it's possible.
Also, the Cuban exile lobby is far too powerful to be discredited by the powers that be, regardless of political party. THeir strong influence on U.S. policy will probably continue in the short-term history of a post-fidel Cuba.
for the record:
U.S. legislation, including the Embargo, to oust Fidel Castro has failed.
Nothing that the Cuban-American architects have tried has worked.
For thinking people, that pretty much does it.
the idea that because the lobby is too powerful it is above being discredited insults our intelligence.
as far democracy goes, Cubans are free to legitimate their governing authorities any way they want.
correction. the idea that because the lobby is "far too powerful" to be discredited insults our intelligence.
clearly you can see how offended I am. I can't even write my statement.
Look, one doesn't get one's creditability from holding power!
that's an unbelievably anti-democratic mindset.
Woah redwood! It seems like you misunderstood what I said so I will try to briefly clarify.
Certainly might does not make right. Nor does it justify the Cuban exile lobby' heavy influence over U.S. policy on the island.
What I'm try to explain is that the enormous clout that the lobby has in Washington hinders meaningful change on policy towards Cuba. Whther it be changing/eliminating the embargo or relaxing travel restriction to the island nothing happens without the lobby's 'seal of approval.' Perhaps this may change in time once democracy does come to Cuba or when younger generations replace older members of the lobby's leadership. I just don't see that happening anytime soon regardless of Fidel's health or whatever Raul Castro decides to do as leader.
then we agree that the Cuban-American lobby is profoundly discredited. ; )
but my first point is that even if CANF were to have a change of heart, the NeoCons in Washington DC are not going to lighten up as long as the Communist Party runs Havana.
The NeoCons's argument that the Soviets fell because Reagan's gunboat diplomacy is still at stake here.
In Cuba, the commies have gone toe to toe with us. And they're past the Special Period in which they were begging for entrance into Western markets.
So we'll see no significant change in US policy until after the 2008 election, and not even then if McCain is elected.
IMHO.
Point taken, redwood.
I don't think that anyone, NeoCon or otherwise, will "lighten up" any time soon so as long as the Communists rule the roost in Cuba. And that may take longer than '08 depending what Raul, Perez Roque, and the other head honchos do. Obviously there is the hopethat things will change soon but all signs point otherwise.
It's easy to be a pessimist, but it's certainly not enjoyable!
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