Cuba: Fidel’s health and passage of power to his brother on the minds of a lot of people

Update (04:00pm): Miami Herald columnist Andres Oppenheimer gives three reasons why Fidel handed over power to his brother. Meanwhile, this picture is ironic in so many ways.

*Unlike the raucous joy in Miami Monday night (left image), Cubans on the island met the news of Fidel’s handover of power with stunned silence and tranquility.

*Politicians such as Senator Mel Martinez and Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (both Cuban exiles) are guarded in their optimism for a positive change to occur in Cuba. Meanwhile, Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez are closely monitoring the situation in Cuba in order to ensure the public safety of people in South Florida.

*So how should the U.S. react if Fidel dies and there’s a regime change? The obvious point is that the U.S. needs to promote a “pro-democracy” agenda. Will it involve a direct intervention welcomed with open arms by the Cuban people? Or perhaps things will be chaotic and will lead to a legitimate political opening. Or maybe U.S. intervention will hurt more than help and make the situation in Cuba worse. Then again the U.S. could “finagle some way to gain control and grant it statehood”. Mind you, this could all be moot and irrelevant if Raul Castro really is the “far more radical” leader some believe he is and he’s able to successfully consolidate power for himself.

*Speaking of the new leader of Cuba, here are a few biographies on Raul Castro (right image).

*Remember the Bush administration report released three weeks ago discussing regime change in Cuba? Here it is (in PDF format).

*The calm after the storm- people of Cuban decent in South Florida ponder what would happen in Cuba if Fidel were to die.

*Here’s a thought: could oil be the factor that overturns the U.S. embargo on Cuba?

*An English-language translation of Fidel’s letter that was read on Cuban television last night.

*Wonkette sarcastically wonders if Fidel has the power to “change other people’s birthdays” beside his own.

*Finally, a few anti-Castro jokes which aren’t too bad.

Cuba, Fidel Castro, international economy, international politics