Monday, July 31, 2006

Commentary: Is the political left really losing in Latin America?

The New York Times certainly believes that any vast movement towards the political left has been stymied by recent electoral results in Peru and Mexico. As the editorial mentioned “the left has been losing ground in recent elections, and there are signs that just being associated in voters' minds with (Venezuelan president Hugo) Chávez is a liability.”

However, the Times’ editorial falls into the same trap that a Reuters article did about a month ago- it assumes that the political left is monolithic and represented by the populist rhetoric of Chavez. Any moderate leftist leader is labeled as “moderate social democrats” that have “more in common with the center-right” than Chavez. It sounds like a statement that could delegitimize moderate leftist leaders like Lula or Michelle Bachelet?

Contrast the Times’ editorial with the following quote from a different article:

"One must differentiate and classify these new governments, rather than use

a broad brush when describing South America's turn to the left."

The quote comes from an article looking at the impact of the left on the Jewish minority residing in South America. Here we see a fair examination of the political left by acknowledging the presence of moderate leftists and populist leftists.

So ultimately is the political left dead in Latin America? Not yet. Leaders that are center-left tend to have reasonable amounts of popularity as well as growing and stable economies. Populist leftists are not a dying breed as the Times’ editorial notes since Ollanta Humala remains as a major politician in Peru and Hugo Chavez is certain to be reelected in December.

The more operative question is “can moderate leaders on the left and the Latin American right-wing co-exist”? The Times’ editorial seems to allude to this notion, and the lack of an extreme right throughout the region lends credence to such a view. On the other hand, possible presidential victories later this year by populist politicians in Nicaragua and Venezuela could signal a resurgence in the populist left. I suppose we’ll have to wait and see.

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