The Elusive Latino Swing Voter

Election day: a day of reckoning for the entire house and a healthy chunk of senators, governors and local officials.

Before the pundits jump in to explain the extent of the 2010 Republican wave, it's been interesting to see the role of the Latino vote in this year's contests. Immigration hasn't been as big a national issue as in other years, but there's still been a lot of buzz about the immigration debate and the role of the Hispanic electorate.

Sharron Angle, the Tea Party-backed Republican candidate in Nevada has come under fire for an ad some claim is overtly racist, and a previously unheard of outside group called "Latinos for Reform" ran an ad urging Latinos not to vote in Nevada.

Angle's opponent, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, has been criticized for stating that he would pursue immigration reform ahead of a bi-partisan energy bill. The maneuver cost the support of Republican Lindsay Graham and essentially killed the bill, even though virtually all observers knew the chances of immigration reform going through Congress this summer were virtually nil. Critics say Reid's move was a cynical ploy to win Latino votes in his home state, and if they're right it explains why Reid is fighting for his life against an opponent who should be very beatable.

Both Obamas even took to the Spanish-language airwaves this week to do some last minute campaigning on Univision radio. All the noise made Andrew Sullivan ask, somewhat awkwardly, "Por qué inmigración?," citing a piece by Ross Douthat of the New York Times that wondered aloud if Democrats really think they can win in 2012 on the immigration issue.

Douthtat writes: "in 2012 there’s little reason to think that the gains from mobilizing Hispanics around an (almost certainly futile) immigration reform push will count for all that much."

In fact, Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight, the reigning champ of statistical political analysts, broke down the 2008 election and decided that "the removal of the Hispanic vote wouldn't have changed the election outcome in any state."

Until that cold political calculus changes, I think the best bet is for several more years of empty promises.

Image Source: Vivirlatino

Online Sources: Huffington Post, New York Times, Andrew Sullivan/The Atlantic, Fivethirtyeight.com, The New Yorker, NPR, RealClearPolitics, Associated Press

Congress to vote on Puerto Rican status referendum

The House of Representatives is expected to vote today on whether to pass a non-binding act establishing a referendum for Puerto Rico’s legal status.

The Puerto Rico Democracy Act would establishes a two-tiered vote wherein eligible voters would decide if they were satisfied with the island’s current commonwealth status. That could subsequently lead to a second vote where Puerto Ricans would select to have the island either remain as a commonwealth or move towards becoming a state or an independent country.

The possibility of Puerto Rico becoming the 51st state to the U.S. has alarmed some on the right. The Lexington Institute think tank issued a report in March warned of economic issues that “would need to be addressed” if statehood were to be achieved. On a more extreme level Glenn Beck declared that the act was part of a conspiracy by “the progressives” to rig the vote, ensure statehood, and increase their political power.

The bill has received some support from Republicans, however. "Congress has never asked those American citizens residing in Puerto Rico to express their opinion on the territory's political status," said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Republican political consultant Alex Castellanos urged GOP legislators to pass the act and not fall into the trap of “mischaracterizing” it as a statehood bill. Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño (who is allied to the Republicans) advocated for the act last year:

“The reality is that the island’s current status does not enable the people of Puerto Rico to fulfill their potential for social, economic and political development,” the island’s governor said on Wednesday in a hearing of the House Committee on Natural Resources…

He said the measure presented by Puerto Rico’s non-voting representative to Congress, Pedro Pierluisi, provides for a “just and impartial” process, without taking a position in favor of or against the options on the table.

Though the measure has received mostly Democratic support, one congressman is upset with the “shady” proceedings surrounding it. Rep. Luis Gutierrez wrote that he was disappointed with the alleged lack of debate and he will vote against the measure.

Image- Mental Floss
Online Sources- HULIQ, Indyposted.com, Lexington Institute, FOX News, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, National Review Online, LAHT, Huffington Post

Honduran prez proposes constitutional vote

Several Latin American countries from Ecuador to Bolivia have held nationwide votes in order to modify their country’s constitutions. Even in nations whose leaders are not populist, constitutional reform has become a hot topic.

Honduran president Manuel Zelaya suggested that his country have a national referendum by June to decide on a constitutional assembly. He did not give specific details as how Honduras’ Magna Carta would be modified though he emphasized yesterday that "substantial and significant changes" were needed to the constitution.

The Honduran government cited that the current constitution formulated in 1982 near the end of military rule does not accurately reflect the “national reality”. Zelaya’s sentiments were not shared by the political opposition who deemed a referendum as illegal:

“The president is mistaken since such a vote...lacks any judicial legality. He can put as many ballot boxes he wants to calculate his popularity but they are null and void. Anyone who dares speaks against the topic risks being in danger by the authorities,” claimed National Congress president Roberto Micheletti. [ ed. – personal translation]

Image- La Tribuna (Image of Honduran president Manuel “Mel” Zelaya).
Online Sources- The Latin Americanist, La Prensa, El Heraldo, etaiwannews.com, AP