IMF: LatAm econ to be worse than expected

Last May, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipated that Latin America’s economy would recover quicker from the global crisis than other regions and even faster than advanced industrialized nations. Before that rebound, however, the IMF expects the region to face worse economic woes than were initially estimated:

Latin America’s economy will contract more than initially forecast this year, before rebounding in 2010 because of stronger demand for the region’s commodities, the International Monetary Fund said today.

Latin America’s gross domestic product will shrink 2.6 percent in 2009, down from a previous forecast for a 1.5 percent drop, according to an update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The region will bounce back in 2010, expanding 2.3 percent, up from a previous forecast for growth of 1.6 percent.

The IMF study has already had a negative effect on stocks throughout the region. Brazil’s main stock index has dropped by 1.5% in trading so far today.

In a bad sign for the U.S., neighboring country and major economic partner Mexico is expected to have its GDP drop by a whopping 7.3% this year alone. Worse is that the IMF prognosticates that the U.S. economy will not have sustained growth until the second half of 2010.

In terms of the world, the IMF anticipates that global output will falter by 1.4% yet the 2010 recovery is expected to be greater than estimated three months ago.

Image- TIME (“Trucks crossing into the U.S. from Mexico pour through a U.S. Customs inspection station at the Otay Mesa Border Crossing in San Diego.”)
Online Sources- Bloomberg, Reuters, AP, CBC

Cuba: Fifty years of revolution

Yesterday marked the fiftieth anniversary of the Cuban Revolution where Fidel Castro led his rebel army to overthrow dictator Fulgencio Batista.

Cubans on the island celebrated to mark the occasion as President Raul Castro praised the revolution while noting that “it is time to reflect on the future.” Castro’s remarks came during a ceremony that included an 18-minute documentary on his brother Fidel who has not been seen in public since July 2006.

For Castro and his supporters the past fifty years have been successful and have brought great social and economic prosperity to Cuba. The mood is far different for exiles that have left the country:

Miami restaurant owner Ailin Fernandez left Cuba more than 20 years ago. She longs to return home and open a restaurant in the beach town of Varadero, but not under the current government…

Others, like Giselle Palacios, 18, have come to Miami to escape political persecution on the island. As the daughter of prominent dissidents, she fled after being kicked out of college for her political activities.

The future of Cuba remains to be seen; several Latin American nations have strengthened ties with the island and are shying away from isolationism. The recent discovery of offshore oil fields may boost the country’s sagging economy. The incoming Obama administration could help ease the hard line in U.S.-Cuba relations though that will also depend on the Cuban government’s efforts.

Cuba’s revolution has reached the fifty-year mark despite seemingly insurmountable odds. Will it make it to its centenary anniversary in 2059?

Image- The Age
Online Sources- BBC News, AFP, Voice of America, Reuters, Xinhua, NPR

Daily Headlines: November 4, 2008

Note: Since our upcoming posts will focus on the U.S. elections, today’s batch of “Headlines” is going to be longer than usual.

* Latin America: Congrats to Marilson Gomes dos Santos of Brazil and Britain’s Lewis Hamilton for winning the New York Marathon and Formula One championship, respectively.

* Dominican Republic: Five migrants who survived being lost at sea for over two weeks resorted to cannibalism to stay alive.

* Cuba: The island is hosting its annual trade fair which is expected to be attended by thousands of foreign business representatives.

* Colombia: Indigenous protests continued into a fourth week after talks between native leaders and President Alvaro Uribe failed.

* Mexico: Two senior police officers were among the 29 people killed in drug gang-related violence on Monday.

* Argentina: Believe it or not, Diego Maradona will become the next coach of the Argentine men’s soccer team.

* Venezuela: “The ideas of the ruling team are very bad ideas” said ex-Polish leader Lech Walesa in his criticism of Venezuela’s government.

* Peru: Rest in peace Yma Sumac, the "Nightingale of the Andes."

Sources- Metafilter, YouTube, Reuters, New York Times, IHT, CNN, IPS, Reuters, MSNBC, Canadian Press

Trade with E.U. splits Andean Community

Leaders from the Andean Community started their summit today and initially agreed that regional unity was necessary to combat the global financial crisis. Yet that idea hit a bump when Ecuador and Bolivia decided to opt out of a trade deal with the E.U.

Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa said that the bloc would seek political and economic cooperation agreements with the E.U. and called for a summit between both groups. According to Bloomberg that may be a challenge:

The split over trade within the Andean group threatens to erode the bloc's negotiating power. The European Union has said the South American countries must meet demands over financial deregulation and intellectual property before talks can resume.

The heads of most members of the Andean Community attended the conference yet one notable absence was Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. Diplomatic relations between both states have been cut since the March raid of Colombian forces into Ecuador which killed a guerilla commander. Uribe cancelled going to the summit citing remarks made by Correa to a Brazilian newspaper on the raid; Correa replied that he had been misquoted.

Image- Living in Peru
Sources (English)- The Latin Americanist, Reuters, Bloomberg
Sources (Spanish)- El Tiempo

Daily Headlines: October 8, 2008

* Venezuela: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied that planned military exercises between Russia and Venezuela are designed to provoke the U.S.

* El Salvador: President Tony Saca continued his country’s commitment to maintaining troops in Iraq.

* Brazil: World Bank head Robert Zoellick proposed scrapping the G7 in favor of a “steering group” of nations including Brazil.

* Peru: The Andean country’s energy minster quit his post amidst a growing scandal over “alleged oil kickbacks.”

Image- boston.com (“The Pyotr Velikiy, Peter the Great, Russian nuclear-powered missile cruiser seen in the Barents Sea, Russia, in this July, 2004, file photo. The Peter the Great cruiser accompanied by three other ships of Russia's Northern Fleet was to sail from their base in Severomorsk…on a cruise which will include a joint exercise with the Venezuelan Navy, Russian Navy spokesman Igor Dygalo said on Vesti 24 television. (AP Photo/File).”)
Sources- forbes.com, AFP, The Latin Americanist, IHT