Wyoming, Honduras

Regional governments continue to be divided over whether to recognize (or in the Spanish case "neither recognize nor ignore") yesterday's win for Pepe Lobo in the Honduran elections.

The crisis has shown a leveling of the playing field when it comes to which outside powers hold the most sway in Honduras. But the basic fact that outsiders will have a say in Honduras' internal affairs remains unquestioned.

On this note, an entertaining Google News alert landed in my inbox today with the Casper, Wyoming Star-Tribune's profile of a Wyoming man who years ago was imprisoned for attempting to assassinate former Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega.

Tom Bleming, who spent nearly two years in jail in Panama after the ill-fated Noriega plot, now finds himself among the international cadre of ardent Zelaya supporters and even gained access to underground opposition groups during his recent trip to Honduras.

With Zelaya's chances of getting back to power now nearly zero, it will be interesting to see if how long he remains a cause celebre for his international supporters.

Image Source: Wyoming Star-Tribune (Courtesy Tom Bleming)
Online Sources: Wall Street Journal, 1st Lead, Wyoming Star-Tribune

Honduras Vote Results

According to Sunday exit polls, Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo of the conservative party is poised to to win the presidency of Honduras with about 55% of the vote to Elvin Santos' 39%. Lobo lost the 2005 election to ousted president Manuel Zelaya.

Press suggest that Sunday's poll day was mostly peaceful, with some reports of police repression of Zelaya supporters and other lowgrade violence in San Pedro Sula -- though nothing that will likely threaten the face-validity of the Sunday polls. Many polling stations even stayed open longer than anticipated in order to ensure that all voters in line could cast their ballot.

Recognition

Recognition of Sunday's results, however, is still, of course a sticking point: by my tally, countries that have voiced a strong stance one way or the other in the region thus far:

WILL RECOGNIZE: USA, Costa Rica, Panama -- both Peru and Colombia have issued statements suggesting they'll may recognize.  

WILL NOT RECOGNIZE: Brazil, Guatemala, Argentina, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay and El Salvador

(Notably, the OAS, UN and EU (via Spain) did not send observers. Some like, Canada, have made purposefully ambiguous statements).

It's still unclear how many of the 4.6 million registered Honduran voters voted on Sunday, but it is likely to be higher than the (apparently unsettled figure of between) 45% - 56% that elected Zelaya in 2005 --- official TSE estimates have it at 61%, while the Zelaya camp is claming that abstention was at 45%. This number will undoubtedly factor in to the recognition decision of on-the-fence countries.

The Zelaya question

Meanwhile, what will happen to ousted President Zelaya remains very much a question mark. The Honduran Supreme Court issued a non-binding ruling last week that Zelaya should not retake office (14 / 15 judges). This Wednesday, a congressional vote is (finally) scheduled to take place on the fate of Zelaya, though most signs point to a negative vote for Zelaya, who himself has declared that he'll refuse to re-take the presidency even if the congress votes him back in at this late date. To date he remains holed up in the Brazilian embassy.

Lobo has said that if / when he takes office, he will be willing to talk to Zelaya and allow him to leave the Brazilian embassy without fear of arrest, though has not made clear whether he'll seek to issue a presidential pardon or continue to press charges if the congress votes to do so (Zelaya faces nearly 40 criminal charges).

Worth noting is that all 128 congressional seats and 298 mayors are also to be determined from Sunday's vote. (from 2005 election, liberal party had 62 and national party had 55). While the past five months have seen a relatively unified congress against Zelaya (Micheletti is from Zelaya's and Santo's Liberal party, remember), how the legislature shapes up will be key in determining how much cooperation the two parties maintain once the coup becomes prologue and governance questions take center stage for the new politicians in power.

Sources: La Prensa, El Heraldo, NY Times, Reuters, Bloggings by Boz

Honduras chooses presidential candidates for 2009

Yesterday saw the final tallies of the Honduran presidential primaries, which were pushed back from their original date due to flooding, and were even threatened to be thwarted by continuous threats of teacher strikes.

Nonetheless, the ballots were cast peacefully all across the country and the presidential candidates of the two major parties were determined; Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo won the primary for the conservative national party (PNH) by a landslide while Mauricio Villeda eked out 52% of the liberal party (PLH) votes to seal the nomination over the erstwhile PLH front runner and current vice-president, Elvin Santos (who is technically barred from running since he served temporarily as commander in chief during a brief absence of President Zelaya).

I haven't seen any reliable polls on the general election outlook yet, but all reliable sources suggest that Lobo's margin of victory and his "change" oriented campaign in the face of an abysmally low Mel Zelaya approval rating put his campaign in a very strong position as the marathon general election campaigns begin in earnest (the election season in Honduras appears to be one of the longest in Latin America, as the general election takes place nearly 12 months from today).

Both nominees are 60 years old, and neither have held major political offices before (though Lobo lost the presidential bid to Zelaya in 2005). Notably, both primary winners share their "platform" with female running mates, ensuring that a female will occupy the vice-presidency after November 2009 (though this will not be the first such occasion for Honduras).

Source: La Prensa, IFES Election Guide, Reuters, PepeLobopresidente.com