Staunch Uribe ally wins Colombian presidency

Several weeks ago former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos nearly won the Colombian presidency in the first round. Yesterday he easily won the runoff with roughly seven of every ten voters choosing him over ex-Bogota mayor and independent candidate Antanas Mockus. Over nine million voters chose Santos, more than the tally received in the previous two elections by the soon-to-be outgoing president Alvaro Uribe.

How did Santos accomplish such a decisive victory? Several reasons according to Colombia’s Semana.com such as Santos running with the strengths of the government’s so-called “democratic security policy” as well as positioning himself as the successor to the highly popular Uribe. Santos appeared to be helped by an increase in abstentions due to inclement weather, attention towards the World Cup, and polls that signaled that he would easily win. Mockus admitted that he made costly mistakes in his campaign that cost him dearly and he did not sufficiently appeal to the average voter. The rescue of four hostages held by the FARC rebels exactly one week before the runoff may’ve served as an “October surprise” from Uribe to his loyal ally.

Santos will be inaugurated this August not only with an electoral mandate but also with an Uribista majority in the legislature. Nevertheless, his challenges are many including avoiding the many political scandals that dogged Uribe during his eight years of power. Though Santos boasted in victory that he would not negotiate with the FARC, he may have to shift some of his security priorities to combating growing crime in Colombian cities. Santos may continue Uribe’s “pro-business reforms” that have made him a ”darling of Colombian and foreign businesses” yet he cannot ignore the country’s moderately high unemployment rate and growing economic inequality. His top foreign affairs priority is to repair fractured relations with Venezuela and to a lesser extent Ecuador but he will also have to improve diplomatic efforts to ensure good relations with the White House. Finally, he will have to live up to his promises of leading a “national unity” government and avoid demonizing the opposition like Uribe had the tendency to do.

Image- Christian Science Monitor
Online Sources- Christian Science Monitor, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, semana.com, El Espectador, The Latin Americanist, Wikipedia, BBC News, Reuters, FT.com

Mockus and the Green Fail

If you were following polls leading up to yesterday's Colombian presidential election, you're probably very surprised with the results that emerged today.

Juan Manuel Santos, who by most indications was running neck-and-neck with upstart former Bogotá mayor and Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus, took 46.6% of the vote. Mockus, meanwhile, won only 21.5%, far below the 32% he was polling at when the last poll was conducted by RCN/Semana a week ago.

Because Santos didn't win a full majority he still faces a second round with second-place Mockus, but some members of the Santos camp are calling for Mockus to drop out and save the cost of putting on what they call a futile effort to overcome Santos. As the argument goes, if Mockus drops out "20 schools can be built" with the money it would cost to support a second round.

I don't think budgets work that way, but it's a clever political move by the Uribista camp to pressure the famously civic-minded Mockus to throw in the towel.

Image Source: La Tribuna (Honduras)

Online Sources: NY Times, Colombia Reports, El Espectador

Uribe, Paramilitaries and the Colombian Election

Colombians go to the polls this Sunday, and the likely result will be see former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos and former Bogotá mayor Antanas Mockus headed to a runoff election in June.

Today a new story came to light that promises to play a big part in Colombia's ongoing debate (and main election narrative) about how well the Uribe administration (with Santos as Defense Minister) has enforced rule of law and human rights protections in its agressive campaign against guerrillas and drug traffickers.

From today's Washington Post:

Juan Carlos Meneses, 42, a retired major in Colombia's National Police, has decided to speak out about how he collaborated with a paramilitary group in the small northern town of Yarumal. The group, he now says, was organized and led by Santiago Uribe, President Álvaro Uribe's brother.

And on Uribe's own knowledge of the group:

Q: What was the role of Álvaro Uribe, a rising politician and senator with an eye on national office, as all this was going on in Yarumal?
A: "What I knew about Álvaro is what Santiago told me. In that time, he said to me, 'Don't worry, lieutenant. My brother, Álvaro, knows all about this."

Uribe's response to the story, which first ran in the Washington Post and Pagina 12 of Argentina was "I don't read international newspapers."

Uribe has a history of not hiding his discontent when reporters ask question he doesn't like, but I don't expect he'll be able to plead ignorance for much longer on this one.

What Uribe eventually does say just may end up helping Mockus convince the Colombian electorate that he's the candidate they're after in a "change" election.

Image Source: Colombia Reports
Online Sources: Colombia Reports, LA Times, Washington Post, BBC Mundo, Americas Quarterly

Weekend Headlines: May 22-23, 2010

* Colombia: With one week to go until Election Day polls show that the Colombian president race will likely head to a runoff between former defense minister Juan Manuel Santos and ex-Bogota mayor Antanas Mockus.

* Puerto Rico: Tensions between protesters and police flared up as students and labor unions continue to spearhead demonstrations against Gov. Luis Fortuno.

* Ecuador: A U.S. judge temporarily blocked Chevron from receiving raw footage of a documentary on the oil giant’s alleged pollution in the Ecuadorian rainforest.

* U.S.: Bernardo and Chaska where the names chosen for a pair of Andean bear cubs residing in Washington’s National Zoo.

Image – Reuters (“Presidential candidate for the ''U'' Party Juan Manuel Santos (L) speaks during a TV debate in Bogota May 18, 2010.” Fellow frontrunner Antanas Mockus is located at the fair right in the background.)
Online Sources- Reuters, Global Voices Online, WTOP, AP

Weekend Headlines: May 15-16, 2010

* Puerto Rico: On the one hand the man accused in the brutal murder of Jorge Steven López Mercado changed his plea to guilty and immediately received a 99-year prison sentence.

* U.S.: On the other hand a New York jury declared a mistrial for the second defendant in the killing of Jose Sucuzhanay.

* Colombia: Presidential candidate Antanas Mockus said that if he were elected he would try to normalize trade with Venezuela but also warned “if Venezuela becomes another Cuba, it would be sad for everyone.”

* Mexico: The bodies of seven men kidnapped on Monday were found dead in Chihuahua on Wednesday.

Image – Pink News (Jorge Steven López Mercado was killed in November by a man who claimed to hate gays but “offered the victim cocaine to have sex with him.”)
Online Sources- Towleroad.com, Gothamist, Americas Quarterly, LAHT

Daily Headlines: May 6, 2010

* Bolivia: A nationwide strike took place yesterday as protesters demanded higher wages from the federal government.

* Haiti: A pair of Senators from each major party introduced a bill that would give $3.5 billion over five years to earthquake-ravaged Haiti.

* Colombia: Antanas Mockus vowed that he would prevent a Venezuelan-style “revolution” if he were elected as Colombian president.

* Cuba: According to the Cuban press the country’s sugar harvest was the worst in over a century.

Image – AFP
Online Sources- Bloomberg, Washington Post, El Universal, MSNBC

Colombia: Mockus continues climb in polls

Back in February when Colombia’s Constitutional Court barred President Alvaro Uribe from seeking a third term it seemed a sure bet that one of his closest allies would succeed him. Since then, however, former Bogotá mayor Antanas Mockus (image) has enjoyed a stratospheric rise in the polls at cost of several Uribista presidential hopefuls.

In a poll released on Monday by RCN Television dark horse candidate Mockus would win in either a first or second round over ex-Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos. Another poll released yesterday by Invamer-Gallup showed a statistical tie between both men but also indicated that Mockus would win in a run-off against Santos. Those polls showed that may have a very realistic chance in becoming Colombia’s next president after trailing Santos by nearly thirty points as recently as five weeks ago.

The race for Colombia’ presidency has become a two-horse race between Santos and Mockus while conservative candidates such as Noemi Sanin and German Vargas Lleras have fallen by the wayside. It was no surprise then that Santos attacked Mockus in a televised debate last night and criticized him for supposedly endorsing extraditing Uribe to Ecuador over a controversial 2008 Colombian military incursion.

Trying to pigeonhole Mockus into an ideological category is not an easy task. On the one the hand he is not as staunchly pro-Uribe as the likes of Santos and Lleras. Conversely, he has vowed to continue the “economic and security policies” of the very popular Uribe. Take for example his views on Colombia’s armed conflict and Venezuela’s president:

Mockus has repeatedly stated that he will not negotiate with the FARC rebel group until all hostages are released and said he “respects”, but is no fan of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, whom the Colombian Government has accused of interfering in the elections by attacking candidate Santos. Chávez has said that if Santos if elected president, a regional war is “almost inevitable since he is puppet of the US Empire”.

“What is productive (with Venezuela) is relations based on prudence,” has been the message of Mockus to Colombian public opinion. According to Colombian political analyst Alejo Vargas, soaring popular support for Mockus can be explained because of a “media swell” similar to what happened eight years ago with Álvaro Uribe who, against all odds and forecasts, was elected president of Colombia in May 2002.

Image- LAHT
Online Sources- The Latin Americanist, Reuters, Plan Colombia and Beyond, BusinessWeek, MercoPress, Colombia Reports

Daily Headlines: April 16, 2010

* Argentina: An Argentine judge annulled Latin America’s first gay marriage that had taken place last December in the city of Ushuaia.

* Colombia: Green Party presidential candidate Antanas Mockus continues his rise up the polls as he keeps closing the gap with frontrunner Juan Manuel Santos.

* El Salvador: Remittances to El Salvador increased last month as part of the “first positive rate observed since October 2008.”

* U.S.: According to researchers Latinos tend to live in areas where there are limited screenings for colon cancer.

Image – Guardian UK (Alejandro Freyre and Jose Maria Di Bello was Latin America’s first same-sex marriage in a civil ceremony last December).
Online Sources- UPI, LAHT, The Latin Americanist, Bloomberg, AFP

Colombia: Opposition candidate second in poll

Could a former mayor of Bogota become the dark horse candidate to win Colombia’s presidency? It may seem like a long shot but one recent poll showed that his campaign was on the rise.

According to the poll commissioned by CM&, Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus holds a scant 2% lead over Conservative Party candidate Noemi Sanin. Mockus has surged into second place after most polls in the run-up to May’s elections had Sanin trailing fellow Uribista Juan Manuel Santos. Though Santos has consistently led the polls by double-digits it appears as if a second round will be needed in June to decide who will succeed Alvaro Uribe.

The CM& poll has not been without controversy, however; Radical Change candidate Germán Vargas Lleras called for an investigation after rumors emerged that polling firm Datexco repeated the survey when Mockus supposedly emerged ahead of Santos. Datexco’s director denied the claims in an interview with Colombian political website La Silla Vacia.

Mockus’ choice of former Medellin mayor Sergio Fajardo for vice president may have contributed to his zoom in the polls and some of their supporters are hoping for a first round upset. His center-left platform has been critical of the FARC as he vies to become a viable independent candidate:

"He seems to be in the same position that Uribe was in 2002, when he started way behind in the polls and then climbed very quickly," said Mauricio Romero, professor of political science at Bogota's Javeriana University.

"Mockus's anti-corruption stance and emphasis on building a civic culture are attractive to a lot of people. He also has wide support in the business community," Romero said. "Having Parkinson's should not hurt him politically, but it remains to be seen how much support he can gain before May 30."

Image- La Opinion
Online Sources- La Silla Vacia, AP, El Espectador, BusinessWeek, Colombia Reports, El Tiempo, Reuters