Could Nicaragua be the next country in Central America to undergo political crisis in 2009? Coverage from the 30th anniversary of the Sandinista revolution reveals that President Daniel Ortega has announced plans to push forward with his own referendum which would remove constitutional term limits on the presidency.Despite approval ratings hovering around a measly 30%, if the Sandinista government handling of the November municipal elections (closed to international monitors and widely cited as fraudulent) are any indication at how they might carry out such a referendum, it is unlikely to fail. Thus, if Nicaragua is anything like its neighbor to the north, Honduras, it stands to reason that the massive Ortega opposition will be mobilizing for action soon, and a coup would not be out of the realm possibility.
So is Nicaragua a different case than Honduras? Probably. The CSM's Tim Rogers seems to think that Ortega is not only a shrewder tactician, but has much broader control over the government, the legislature, and the courts -- as well as the military.
Dozens of groups have been sounding the alarm in Nicaragua since 2006, and despite steady deterioration of democracy, nothing so close to a coup has yet emerged -- and November was a real test for the country's democratic breaking point.
Moreover, because Ortega is not likely to encounter the type of en masse rejection of his plans that Zelaya did, it will be difficult for his opposition to muster a constitutional rationale for his removal, much less the backing of the necessary powers to carry it out.
At the same time, one can't help question Ortega's timing for his renewed calls for reelection (a mantra he's been pushing for years). Is it a shrewd move capitalizing on the world's fixed gaze on Honduras, or was he just caught up in the ego-centric emotion of his -- I mean Nicaragua's -- 30th anniverary of the Sandinista revolution?
Either way, as the Honduran crisis roils on, it will be important to pay just as much attention to what is happening in Nicaragua in the coming months.
Sources: CSM, La Prensa, AP, BBC
2 comments:
Your logic escapes me. Why would Ortega need a "coup" when he is already in power? And please remember that other countries, such as the US have changed their constitution in regards to how many terms the president may serve. In how many other countries may the president only serve one term?
- Not a fan of Ortega, and not a fan of CIA-organized coups, either.
Didn't mean to suggest that Ortega would want/need a coup, but rather (perhaps) his opponents.
I also don't believe that Ortega "deserves" to be ousted for seeking constitutional reform allowing reelection; my only point is that we've seen what happens when a president defies the other branches of government in seeking this.
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