tical rally in Caracas on Sunday where he promised supporters of a "knockout" victory. (Link via BBC News).Update (November 26th): Rosales' supporters are not giving up without a fight as hundreds of thousands of people rallied in Caracas on Saturday. (Link via CNN).
Original post: Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez (image) may well be on his way to a landslide reelection victory on December 3rd if the latest poll numbers hold true. An Ipsos/Associated Press poll conducted last week showed 58% support for Chavez while Manuel Rosales trailed a distant second with 25%. Rosales vowed to accept defeat if the election were to be “clean” and without fraud, and electoral observers from the OAS and European Union are preparing to ensure that the election is free and fair.
Image- Scotsman.com
Links- Angus Reid Consultants, International Herald Tribune, Reuters, El Universal (
Tags- Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, election
2 comments:
Is the international news media is being taken for a ride by Hugo Chavez and AP?
The survey that has most assisted to create the impression of a runaway Hugo Chavez lead in the upcoming elections on December 3, 2006, is the one made by IPSOS and announced to the world by AP on November 24 and it is a crazy survey.
This survey contains some questions that show that the majority of respondents do no trust the electoral system in Venezuela and that they are concerned with facing reprisals. Since it also includes many detailed questions on government programs which leaves the respondent in no doubt about who is behind the survey, the results, unsurprisingly, turn out to be 59% in favor of Hugo Chavez and 27% for Manuel Rosales.
This survey would of course have been ignored except for the fact that contrary to all other surveys that have shown this type of lead for Chavez and that have all admitted being directly or indirectly ordered and paid for by the government, this one specifically says that it was carried out “by the polling firm Ipsos for The Associated Press”.
And so we ask, who can believe that the Associated Press would order and pay for a survey that poses 37 questions to 2.500 Venezuelan responders, in “face-to-face-interviews”?
Melville Stone, the great general manager of the Associate Press said about it in 1914 that "the thing it is striving for is a truthful, unbiased report of the world's happenings … ethical in the highest degree." We expect a timely response from AP, before December 3.
Ok, Per, let's assume that you are right in claiming that the IPSOS/AP survey is biased towards Chavez. Then how would that account for most polls showing Chavez with a double digit lead? (Poll numbers via blogger "bloggings by Boz" http://bloggingsbyboz.blogspot.com/2006/12/poll-numbers-december-1-2006.html):
Zogby: Chavez +29
U Comp Madrid: Chavez +20
Survey Fast: Chavez +1
PSB: Chavez +6
IVAD: Chavez +25
Hinterlaces: Chavez +8
Hannah Arndt: Chavez +2
EMC: Chavez +19
Datos: Chavez +27
Datanalysis: Chavez +27
Consultores 21: Chavez +17
CEPS: Chavez +21
CECA: Rosales +11 (!)
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