Winners and Losers: Tallying the Honduran Crisis

With the four-month crisis in Honduras on the cusp of resolution after an agreement to reinstate President Mel Zelaya, a look at the winners and losers of a crisis that thrust the small Central American nation into the global spotlight:

Losers:
Honduras and Hondurans, generally

Where to begin? A battered economy, restrictions on civil liberties, and political violence have all had tragic consequences for Honduras.

Brazil:
Tried to flex its new-found muscle and exert influence in a country outside its sphere of influence. In a summer of good news for Brazil, the use of its embassy as Zelaya's barricaded hideout was a definite dark spot.

Mel Zelaya:
It's hard to imagine a worse hero of the democratic left than Zelaya. Mel can blame his move to set up a fabulously un-democratic non-binding election referendum for the start of the ordeal. Later his continually reckless was partly responsible for the crisis'. Style points for his thrilling secret entry back into the country, though.

Roberto Micheletti
Even before the crisis, Micheletti was a polarizing and shadowy figure in Honduran politics. Because of his role as the head of the de facto government, he's been scorned by the majority of the international community as the villain of the entire affair. Chavez's "Goreletti" taunts must have been especially annoying.

Jose Miguel Insulza
Insulza pushed hard at the beginning of the crisis to bring down the de facto government and reinstate Zelaya. His failed efforts and ineffectively combative style made him look amateurish and actually gave Micheletti political cover to continually rebuff the OAS.

Hugo Chavez
In Zelaya Chavez found a new champion for his Bolivarian Revolution. But while Zelaya displayed some of the Venezuelan's dramatic flare, he never had Hugo's domestic appeal. After Zelaya's successor comes to office, Honduras isn't likely to remain in the ALBA for much longer.

Jim DeMint
It was never entirely clear what DeMint's trips to Honduras were meant to accomplish but whatever he wanted it doesn't look like he got it done.

Winners:

Obama Administration/Clinton State Department:
The Obama team took heaps of criticism from liberals and conservatives for its handling of the Honduras crisis. The polarizing nature of the Honduran conflict made it a critical litmus test of Obama's ability to manage his modified approach to Latin America. Pressed to do more from the left, Obama wisely held off on sanctions that would have furthered crippled the already struggling Honduran economy.

Obama and his team had gripes with both sides of the crisis. Micheletti's first foreign minister publicly referred to Obama as "the little black from the sugar plantation." And Clinton's pre-coup trip to the OAS conference in San Pedro Sula began with an unwelcome request from the Honduran president to meet his family on a night when she just wanted to get some sleep.

Especially after Zelaya's cozying up to Chavez, his reckless moves first from Nicaragua and later when he sneaked into the country to hole up in the Brazilian embassy, the US should probably be commended for remaining committed to restoring the deposed president to his post.

With time running out before the November elections, Obama and Clinton sent seasoned hand Thomas Shannon and rising star Dan Restrepo to draw from Micheletti the final concession the de facto leader (and his backers across the Honduran elite) was loathe to make: the restoration of Zelaya to power.

The US emerges with a minimum amount time they'll have to put up with a restored Zelaya while also establishing the groundwork for widely accepted elections in November.

Pepe Lobo:
After an ill-advised pro-death penalty campaign in 2006 left Lobo behind fellow Olanchan magnate Zelaya, Pepe spent some time in the political wilderness. Liberal Party candidate (and former Zelaya Vice President) Elvin Santos seemed poised early in the year to take the November elections, but Santos' support of the coup will cost him support among the Liberal Party's left wing. The smart money is on Lobo to take the November elections.

Oscar Arias:
Couldn't make the deal happen by himself, but with the San Jose Accord the framework for all negotiations, Nobel Laureate Arias solidified his position as a peacemaker of historical proportion.

Honduras National Soccer Team:
A clutch win in San Salvador and a crucial last-second goal from the US put the Catrachos into the World Cup for the first time since 1982. The unprecedented outpouring of euphoria served as a desperately needed shot of hope for the entire country. Carlos Pavon, the goat of the Honduran's home loss to the US, redeemed himself marvelously.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Bornstein

The most amazing aspect of the entire debacle is how much has remained the same. The country's political elite have withstood a serious challenge to their hegemony from chronically underrepresented labor, peasant and indigenous groups. The US remains the only power with enough influence to broker change in the region. Honduras' internal politics, though certainly more polarized than ever, remain bitterly divided more along historical and partisan as opposed to ideological lines.

While Chavez, Zelaya and even the US have touted the reversal of the June 28 coup as a critical step to avoid falling back to the dark days of Latin America's coups and caudillos, what is clearer today than on June 27 is that, at least in Honduras, fundamental change is still a ways away.

Image Source: Daily Telegraph

Online Sources: DailyKos, New York Times, LA Times,, El Heraldo, Gallup, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, AP, Voice of America , Americas Quarterly, Diez.hn, Miami Herald