Monday, November 30, 2009

Honduras Vote Results

According to Sunday exit polls, Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo of the conservative party is poised to to win the presidency of Honduras with about 55% of the vote to Elvin Santos' 39%. Lobo lost the 2005 election to ousted president Manuel Zelaya.

Press suggest that Sunday's poll day was mostly peaceful, with some reports of police repression of Zelaya supporters and other lowgrade violence in San Pedro Sula -- though nothing that will likely threaten the face-validity of the Sunday polls. Many polling stations even stayed open longer than anticipated in order to ensure that all voters in line could cast their ballot.

Recognition


Recognition of Sunday's results, however, is still, of course a sticking point: by my tally, countries that have voiced a strong stance one way or the other in the region thus far:

WILL RECOGNIZE: USA, Costa Rica, Panama -- both Peru and Colombia have issued statements suggesting they'll may recognize.  
WILL NOT RECOGNIZE: Brazil, Guatemala, Argentina, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay and El Salvador
(Notably, the OAS, UN and EU (via Spain) did not send observers. Some like, Canada, have made purposefully ambiguous statements).

It's still unclear how many of the 4.6 million registered Honduran voters voted on Sunday, but it is likely to be higher than the (apparently unsettled figure of between) 45% - 56% that elected Zelaya in 2005 --- official TSE estimates have it at 61%, while the Zelaya camp is claming that abstention was at 45%. This number will undoubtedly factor in to the recognition decision of on-the-fence countries.

The Zelaya question

Meanwhile, what will happen to ousted President Zelaya remains very much a question mark. The Honduran Supreme Court issued a non-binding ruling last week that Zelaya should not retake office (14 / 15 judges). This Wednesday, a congressional vote is (finally) scheduled to take place on the fate of Zelaya, though most signs point to a negative vote for Zelaya, who himself has declared that he'll refuse to re-take the presidency even if the congress votes him back in at this late date. To date he remains holed up in the Brazilian embassy.

Lobo has said that if / when he takes office, he will be willing to talk to Zelaya and allow him to leave the Brazilian embassy without fear of arrest, though has not made clear whether he'll seek to issue a presidential pardon or continue to press charges if the congress votes to do so (Zelaya faces nearly 40 criminal charges).

Worth noting is that all 128 congressional seats and 298 mayors are also to be determined from Sunday's vote. (from 2005 election, liberal party had 62 and national party had 55). While the past five months have seen a relatively unified congress against Zelaya (Micheletti is from Zelaya's and Santo's Liberal party, remember), how the legislature shapes up will be key in determining how much cooperation the two parties maintain once the coup becomes prologue and governance questions take center stage for the new politicians in power.

Sources:
La Prensa, El Heraldo, NY Times, Reuters, Bloggings by Boz

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