Next steps for Honduras

Those that were busy watching soccer matches and grilling yesterday are today ruefully aware that a new president has been appointed in Honduras, and the democratically elected president sits in exile in Costa Rica.

While the weekend's events seemed surprising to some, many in Honduras believed this move was imminent and necessary for weeks. Speaking to friends in Tegucigalpa yesterday, they told me that most people -- left and right - are relieved to have Zelaya out of power, even if the move is ultimately a temporary one.

They are also saddened and surprised to see such unison in the international press and community in their round rejection of the measure by which Zelaya was removed from office. Aside from the fractious political situation that Zelaya had been creating for months, reasonable people in Honduras agree that the president had to be stopped before he took his illegal referendum to the streets. For them, a military injunction supported by both the courts and congress were the only measure available after he reportedly led a mob of civilians and political supporters to the military base where the ballot boxes were being stored.

Paradoxically, in the midst of international pressure to return Zelaya, Honduras is reportedly undergoing minimal (though strident) protests from Zelaya supporters - the few hardliners that remain as such. Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that things will stand as is. Boz has put together some potential scenarios for what might happen next, though a a peaceful, democratic continuation under interim-president Roberto Micheletti, who has vowed to hold office until the post-election constitutional transition of power January 2010, seems less than "likely" to me. International pressure will likely continue to mount and Honduras' congress, judiciary and military will have to work together to come to an internal understanding about how to handle this pressure, under varying scenarios. These scenarios include an international military response, which itself could have various permutations, since a Venezuelan military response would be much different (and unproductive for Hondurans) than a UN-backed multilateral military response. The dramatic scenarios that could result are hard to imagine in heretofore peaceful and sleepy Honduras, whose regional point of pride has long been that it is the only Central America country to have avoided civil war in the latter part of the 20th century.

The Economist has laid the next steps most succinctly: "For the region’s diplomats, the task now is to restore Mr Zelaya to power but oblige him to respect the constitution until November’s election allows a new president to take office in January."