Next prez faces Cuban challenge

There is much speculation over what to expect domestically and globally under U.S. President-elect Barack Obama. Earlier today, we looked at how a new administration can tackle Iran’s influence in the Americas. Another area that could see a change in policy is Cuba.

In the aftermath of Tuesday’s Election Day, numerous leaders from around the Americas coincided that it was time to drop the U.S. embargo on Cuba. Yet according to several reports, numerous Latin America analysts believe that removing the blockade will not happen anytime soon. "The Cuban-American lobby poured money into the Congressional contests so it is unlikely Congress will break the paralysis on Cuba," noted Daniel Erikson of the Inter-American Dialogue to BBC News. Indeed, the electoral victories of three staunch anti-Castro legislators in Florida will likely prevent any substantive short-term change to the embargo.

Nevertheless, trade policy analyst Jake Colvin told the Los Angeles Times that the next administration could institute “relatively incremental things.” These actions would mirror campaign pledges made by Obama over the past year; chiefly, the easing of travel restrictions imposed by the White House in 2004.

At the same time, the impact of any changes in U.S. policy to Cuba depends on the actions of the Castro regime. “If Cuba makes some sort of gesture toward the United States, it could begin a diplomatic process,” observed Dario Moreno, a Florida International University political science professor.

In the end, the biggest change may have to do with the controversial military base on Guantanamo Bay (image). An AP piece this morning described that the prison’s days may be numbered:

Under plans being put together in Obama's camp, some detainees would be released and many others would be prosecuted in U.S. criminal courts.

A third group of detainees — the ones whose cases are most entangled in highly classified information — might have to go before a new court designed especially to handle sensitive national security cases, according to advisers and Democrats involved in the talks. Advisers participating directly in the planning spoke on condition of anonymity because the plans aren't final.

What do you think: is fundamental change coming to Cuba or will it be more of the same?

Image- BBC News
Sources- The Latin Americanist, BBC News, Los Angeles Times, forbes.com, MSNBC