Weekly Debate: Copa America 2007

Tuesday night will be the start of this year’s Copa America- the top regional soccer tournament for South American states. For the first time, Venezuela will host the 42^nd edition of the tourney and the Chavez administration has spent about $1 billion on construction and infrastructural improvements in an effort to showcase the country. (Hopefully, neither government plans to “to neutralize any effort aimed at disrupting the Copa America” nor any political protests will get out of hand.)

When all is said and done, the important factor is not politics but the game itself. The ten members of South America’s futbol confederation plus two invitees will play with the hope of becoming champion on July 15^th. Of the twelve teams vying for the title who has the best chance of winning? Here’s my very brief, not-so-expert analysis:

Crème de la Crème

• Argentina – By far the team to beat with a very strong squad that would usually be more appropriate for a World Cup match. Juan Roman Riquelme’s Copa Libertadores resurgence should compliment up-and-coming star Lionel Messi who’s been working wonders with world giants FC Barcelona.
• Brazil – The defending champions will look to keep the title that they captured after beating Argentina in penalties. Despite the loss of four key players from last year’s World Cup team (Ronaldo, Adriano, Ronaldinho, Kaka), players like Robinho and Wagner Love are expected to guide the team at least to a finals appearance.

Strong Contenders

• Mexico - Simply put, if “el Tri” performs as well as they did in their Gold Cup finals loss then they can definitely reach the semifinals. Several holdovers from that Gold Cup squad- such as Andres Guardado and Nery Castillo- will appear in a difficult yet manageable Group B.
• United States – The other invited team from CONCACAF is coming off a thrilling comeback win in the Gold Cup finals on Sunday. Nine players from that team along with a roster full of domestic players will be in the very difficult Group C. The team could crash and burn after playing the Gold Cup, but they have the talent to repeat their best Copa America performance (1995- fourth place).
• Uruguay - Despite losing star striker Diego Forlan for the opener against Peru, Uruguay should have no problems in making it to the quarters. Their team is very well-balanced throughout all positions and they definitely have the potential to repeat, if not surpass, their 3^rd place finish in the previous Copa America.

Dark Horses

• Chile – Stuck in a tricky group, Chile could easily end up either winless or in second place behind Brazil. The attack is bolstered by speedy ex-Colo Colo star Matias Fernandez, but their spotty defense may be their undoing.
• Colombia- Colombia would ideally like to return to the finals after winning the tournament at home in 2001. The team consists of a good mix of foreign-based veterans and youngsters, but making it past Brazil or Mexico into the semis could be very difficult.
• Ecuador – It’s been a year since Ecuador was eliminated from the World Cup. Since then, their record has been a lackluster 3-2-4 and they are perennial underachievers in the Copa America.
• Paraguay – Though one of the best teams in South America, their lack of offensive power (aside from Roque Santa Cruz) may do them in. They are stuck in the tourney’s “group of death” and may have to rely on goal difference to make it past the group stage.

No Chance Whatsoever

• Bolivia – Aside from leading the South American contingent against FIFA’s asinine high altitude ban, Bolivia tends to have a poor record away from La Paz. The team will rely mostly on players from established domestic clubs.
• Peru – It’s been a quarter-century since Peru made it to the World Cup and since then it has not gone very well for them. The speedy Jefferson Farfan may be the lone reason to watch this team.
• Venezuela – The host country has improved somewhat since being South America’s perennial doormat and they could make it out of a very weak Group A. In an interesting political twist, they could meet the U.S. in the quarterfinals.

So what are your thoughts on this year’s Copa America? Who do you feel are the main teams to watch? Could an upset winner occur? How much will politics influence the tournament? Will the tournament be a success not only for Venezuela but for the res of South America?

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