In the aftermath of the U.S. midterm elections earlier this month I speculated that “it would be safe to say that the embargo on the island (of Cuba) will keep its current course.” However, Foreign Policy magazine’s blog claimed that the embargo in Cuba may be “on the chopping block” once Democrats take control of Congress this January. They cite the promotion of two staunchly anti-embargo Democrats (Senator Max Baucus and Representative Charlie Rangel) to head key Congressional committees as a sign that the embargo’s days may be numbered.
Will the embargo on Cuba end in spite of it being low on the Democrats’ list of priorities? Or is the Cuban exiled community to powerful to allow that to happen?
What do you think?
Links- The Latin Americanist (blog), Foreign Policy Passport (blog), VivirLatino (blog)
Image- cubanos.org
Tags- Cuba, Congress, Democrats, embargo, international politics
Okay, you heard it here first: if Cuban Cubans do not protest against their government between now and 2008, and if no evidence of a Hezbollah Cuba connection surfaces—and I hope to god there isn’t one--the Embargo will be one of the biggest issues of the 2008 campaign.
ReplyDeleteBut not as much because of the failure of the Embargo, as Baucus says, or because of demand for access to their market.
Instead because the three congressional Republicans from South Florida who hold this thing together will not be able to defend it against legitimate questions about the corruption of USAID money and the dispicable terrorist activities of Posada et al.
For the Democrats, with South Florida increasingly opposed to the travel restrictions, questioning the money to anti-Castro activists will be a low cost, high return attack on the undefensible way in which Republicans have implimented the policy.
If the Democrats are smart, they’ll wait one year and then hold very long, drawn-out hearings on where the money went.
Simultaneously, pressure to release more documents related to Posada will grow such that, at the end of the day, Americans will have no will to maintain the Embargo.
But the anti-Castro forces will fight like hell.
I can see this becoming a big issue on Florida, redwood, but it's hard to see how this would become a national issue even for the Hispanic community. Immigration and the economy, for instance, are greater political priorities for Latinos than the embargo or the misuse of USAID funds. Quite frankly I hope I'm wrong and this does become a major issue like you say but I'm afraid I just don't see that happeneing.
ReplyDelete