Mexican presidential candidate Felipe Calderon (image) spoke triumphantly to sympathizers very early this morning and declared himself the winner. Calderon only has a 0.05% lead over Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) with over 98% of ballots counted in a simple recount that lasted gone for about 24 hours. Election officials have yet to declare an official winner in spite of Calderon's exuberance.Update (10:15am): Associated Press reports that Calderon leads by 0.35% ahead of AMLO with 99.2% of votes counted.
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Felipe Calderon, mexico, election
And they will probably recount the votes again.
ReplyDeleteAlthough I believe that it was done by the use of 'dirty campaigning' and an American style media campaign featuring attack ads of a level that voters in Mexico had not seen before, Calderon is the winner.
A couple of other factors probably contributed to this outcome. The first was that Patricia Mercado (a very different style of leftist) took 2 1/2 % on the left, and the other is that Subcommander Marcos was going around advising people to boycott the election, which depressed turnout, especially in places where Lopez Obrador had to increase his margins.
Had Mercado not run, and had Subcommander Marcos kept quiet about the election, it is very likely that Lopez Obrador would still be the President elect. But they didn't, and he isn't.
In an earlier post I brought up the possibility of Mercado taking votes away from AMLO. I think he could have won if he were to receive at least half of her votes, if not slightly less. On the other hand who knows if those that voted for her on the extreme left would have gone to the polls anyway if she were not running?
ReplyDeleteWhich brings us to the subplot on the Subcommandante. Voter turnout was huge last Sunday (around 75% nationwide if I remember correctly) so it would seem as if Marcos’ call to abstentionism backfired. Also, I suspect those voters inclined to the left went to the polls en masse since the election would be so close. I really believe Mercado made much more of an impact on the election than Marcos.
Speaking of difference-makers, it would be interesting to figure out why Calderon won so easily amongst Mexican living abroad. (60% to 30-something% for AMLO, I think).
One of the most unfortunate aspects of the election was the inordinate amount of negativity and mudslinging, especially from Calderon’s side. It seemed to reek of the stench desperation and the desire to win at all costs. Very pathetic and unnecessary.
This election, for better or for worse, is not over yet so we’ll have to keep a sharp eye out for what transpires over the next few days.