Sunday, October 15, 2006

Ecuadorians choose their next president


***[Scroll down for 4 updates to the original post]***

Yesterday we posted on stories from the international press on today’s election for Ecuador’s’ next president. Here are several headlines from the Ecuadorian media on today’s activities (unless otherwise indicated all articles are in Spanish):

* El Expreso mentions that electoral observers from the Organization of American States (OAS) have found no major irregularities and that “voting has been normal throughout the entire country” according to the head of the OAS observers-Rafael Bielsa. Yet El Mercurio said that Bielsa has been accused by supporters of frontrunner Rafael Correa of not begin impartial and of hiding voting irregularities.

* Bielsa’s claims may be incorrect as La Hora mentioned that there have been hundreds of complaints made on voting irregularities in major cities including insufficient ballots and voting precincts. Hoy Online corroborates by telling that ballots were burned in one provincial city.

* El Telégrafo said that over 200 people were arrested last night for drunkenness and consuming alcohol in public which means that they will not be able to vote today.

* El Universo points that 90,000 Ecuadorians in Spain went to the polls; this is the first presidential election that allows foreign-based Ecuadorians to vote. However, tensions ran high in the Spanish city of Murcia when a few voters clashed with police.

Update (6:00pm): a few more headlines out of Ecuador (all are in Spanish):

Update (7.45pm): CNN en Espanol reports that exit polls have Alvaro Noboa in 1st with 28.5%, Rafael Correa in 2nd with 26.5% and Leon Roldos in a distant third place. Noboa and Correa would face each other in a runoff since no candidate received a majority they would each.

However, Brazilian firm E-Vote has a statistical dead heat with Correa leading at 24.6% and Roldos in 2nd with 24.2%. Noboa isn't even in the top 3 according to E-Vote! (Link via Hoy Online).

If the CNN en Espanol data is correct, then the runoff would be a race to see who could best appeal to moderate voters since Correa and Noboa are on opposite poles of the political spectrum. Yet if the E-Vote data is correcct then the right may very well decide who would win. Perhaps Roldos may have a slight advantage since he's center-left while Correa is less moderate.

Update (8:30 pm): Okay, now I'm confused. El Universo says that E-Vote's data has Noboa and Correa in 1st and 2nd, respectively.

Update (11:45pm): Final update of the evening, folks. (All links are in Spanish).

  • The official results from Ecuador’s Electoral Tribunal can be seen here and will be updated during the evening. As of the time of this update Alvaro Noboa leads with 26.78%, followed by Rafael Correa with 22.42%, León Roldos with 15.93% and Gilmar Gutierrez with 15.64%. (59% of precincts reported).
  • Univision reports that Alvaro Noboa won the first round yet but will have to face Rafael Correa in a runoff. They show an interview given tonight by Noboa where he enthusiastically characterized Correa as a “friend of terrorism, friend of (Hugo) Chavez, (and a) friend of Cuba.” Correa, in the meantime, was briefly shown at a press conference calling for his supporters to be alert in pointing out “fraudulent” activities by his opposition.
  • Leon Roldos expressed his disappointment with his third place finish and was upset that voters “elected the candidates with the biggest checkbooks.”
  • Another candidate upset with her electoral finish was 5th place candidate Cynthia Viteri who quickly admitted defeat but not without vowing to be “alert, observant, and vigilant” for all Ecuadorians.
  • Gilmar Gutierrez was very pleased at being in the top 4 and alluded to Ecuador’s political instability by calling his campaign a “victory for democracy against coup supporters”.

That’s all for tonight. Tune in on Monday when we will look at the reactions to the election by the English-language, international press.


Links- El Universo, El Telégrafo, Hoy Online, La Hora, El Mercurio, El Expreso (all from Ecuador)

Image- El Comercio (Alvaro Noboa on the left and Rafael Correa on the right).

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4 comments:

Tambopaxi said...

ok, polls just closed here in Ecuador at 17h00. Two different exit polls have Alvarao Noboa, Ecuador's wealthiest businessman, in front, 28% or 27&, with Rafael Correa at 27% or 25%, and Leon Roldos tied for third place with Gilmar Gutierrez at about 14-15%, depending which of the two polls you go with. Looks like we're going to segunda vuelta on November, in surprising run-off between two people who couldn't be farther apart on the political spectrum...

Tambopaxi said...

...Sorry, that's November 16 for the second run-off vote for President.

Erwin C. said...

Thanks very much for your update, tambopaxi. I just heard that information on CNN en Espanol, and I wrote that up as an update. But there's also a conflicting set of information which I mentioned so it's a little dodgy and hard to tell for sure what's going on now.

If you can, could you please comment on how things went in your area of Ecuador? Were the polls easy to visit? Any allegations of fraud? Long lines or few people voting?

Tambopaxi said...

Hi, Erwin, Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner on all of this.

To your questions:

1. I went to two voting places with my girlfriend and her mom, and all seemed calm, orderly, and efficient. I say efficient because both ladies voted within the space of 10 minutes, max, without any problems at all.

2. Aside from constant, unsusbtantiated (as far as I can determine) complaints of fraud by Correa and his colleagues, I've seen/heard basically nothing that points to fraud, either small or large scale.

3. Following local media, tv and print through this morning, Weds., Oct. 18, there are lots/lots of complaints about the fracaso of the quick count system contracted by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE, its Spanish acronym) with the Brazilian firm E-Vote. Ironically, while the local E-Vote team was headed by a respected ex-OAS elections expert, Santiago Murray, E-Vote failed to heed repeated warnings from local NGO's, the OAS observer team itself, and the Correa team, that the computerized E-Vote system was not functioning correctly, and indeed, it crashed/failed completely the evening of elections.

NOW, having said that, no one, with the exception of Correa and company (who keep repeating the "fraud" mantra, again, without susbstantiating their claims) has said, implied, let alone accused the TSE of any election fraud, mishandling of ballots, etc. At this point, the TSE and its provincial tribunals continue to do slow, hand counts of Presidential votes (72% counted as of 22h30 last night) and that count continues to show Noboa ahead of Correa by about 2 percentage points.

The real bummer is that counts for Diputados, Consejales (muni level) and Consejeros (provincial level) haven't really started yet, which is unprecedented, or at least something that hasn't happened in years here in Ecuador.

More on all of this later... Saludos, T